Twenty-sixteen will be etched in time as one of the most unpredictable and metamorphic years in our planet’s history. While every fragment of civilization will feel the effects of 2016, the year will leave an indelible imprint on financial services, global political landscapes and mass media for generations to come.
The broader markets will correct – I foresee the broader markets headed for a crash – triggered primarily by manipulators, speculators and years of unsustainable monetary policy. Our public equity markets have been artificially propped up by policy for far too long. America simply can’t keep lowering rates and printing its way to prosperity. Interest rates have nowhere left to go but up, particularly if Trump makes good on his economic plan and we see some real economic growth. I foresee rate hikes leading to a stock market correction. Although it may be a short-lived correction, those who are well-diversified and have allocated some capital to less volatile, less correlated asset classes, will be better able to weather the storm.
The face of financial media will Become Unrecognizable – In 2016 the established media awoke to the revelation that it no longer holds the relevancy that it did in previous generations – something housewives on Facebook have known since about 2008. Although it tried hard not to accept it, traditional media has been hemorrhaging influence for quite some time now. Just like how the video killed the radio star, how Napster crushed the CD, how Netflix annihilated Blockbuster and how Amazon overtook Barnes & Noble, communications technology is on an unstoppable path to demolish mainstream media. While bloggers have been gaining prominence for years at the expense of print media, it will be the video-selfie that delivers mainstream media its final blow. Financial media is no exception. The 2016 U.S. presidential election established social media – not television – as the dominant medium. Clearly, more people tuned into Infowars than to Rachel Maddow. If the video selfie can help influence a U.S. election, its impact on financial services will be colossal. Expect financial content to become edgier as well as more engaging, encompassing and interactive. Expect new financial voices to emerge and gain prominence. Most significantly, expect these new financial media players to forever transform the way people invest, where people invest and how people invest.
FinTech will Expand into Older Demographics – I see countless FinTech business plans. Most of them are loaded with statistics on millennials, ideas for targeting millennials and even pictures of millennials. Yes, many of us industry folks are well-aware that millennials prefer having a root-canal than going to a bank. However, FinTech is not a millennial-centric market. I predict that 2017 will be the year that FinTech crosses demographical thresholds. I expect that older demographics will start incorporating FinTech into their daily routines. As a result, I envision more FinTech innovation being directed towards developing products for other generations, particularly retirees.
The U.S. retirement infrastructure will begin to undergo monumental transformation in 2017 – The $14 trillion retail retirement industry is on the cusp of great transformation. Thanks to the progression of FinTech, RegTech and AltTech, the retirement industry is about to become fairer, simpler and more inclusive. Expect regulatory and technological innovations to be introduced that will unwind a broken and unjust retirement system. Expect retirement plans to become more consumption driven than employment-based. You can also look forward to seeing the mass adoption of game-changing financial products that will give everyone – including present retirees – a fighting chance to prosper throughout their senior years.
The story of financial services is unfolding and it is growing more fascinating by the minute. And I am truly grateful to be alive at this particular moment in time to witness it firsthand.
Anyone who has read my previous year-end articles knows how reflective I tend to get as I approach my Christmas Eve birthday. And this year I am especially pensive given the fact that I am turning 29 (again) and that mercury is in retrograde and that Uranus (pronounced: “Your Ron Issss”) is, well it is somewhere in the universe doing something to affect my mood. Whenever that happens, I tend to seek inspiration in a poem, a lyric or even in just one simple word.
It is for this very reason that I subscribe to dictionary.com’s word of the day. On December 16th, dictionary.com’s word of the day was “hotsy-totsy” and it means, “about as right as can be”. Because I vowed to find a way to incorporate this quirky “makes-you-feel-like-skipping” word into an article, I would like to simply conclude by wishing everyone a joyous holiday season and a very hotsy-totsy 2017!
