Kevin Warsh just wrapped up his first big test as the new chair of the Federal Reserve, and he made it clear he plans to run the central bank very differently from Jerome Powell. Markets got a cautious message on interest rates, plenty of jargon, and one surprising move on the Fed’s famous “dot plot.”
Warsh Holds Rates, Drops His Dot
At his first Federal Open Market Committee meeting, Warsh led a unanimous 12‑0 vote to keep the federal funds rate at 3.5% to 3.75%. The Fed’s post‑meeting statement stayed under 150 words and skipped the usual detailed guidance on where policy might go next. Warsh told reporters the committee “agreed [forward guidance] was not well suited for the current policy juncture.”
He also confirmed he was the one Fed official who withheld a personal rate projection from the Summary of Economic Projections. “I have refrained from offering projections of my own,” he said, even as he encouraged other policymakers to keep submitting dots. That decision makes him the first Fed chair in more than a decade not to participate in the dot plot, according to several analysts.
A Different Style From Powell
During the press conference, Warsh leaned into boardroom language and high‑level theory instead of Powell‑style “plain English.” He spoke repeatedly about returning to “first principles” and testing “alternative frameworks” through a set of new internal task forces. He also referred several times to the Fed’s “remit,” a term more common in politics and corporate governance than in Powell’s briefings.
On the core mission, though, Warsh tried to sound firm. “I’m pleased to report that members of the FOMC are unambiguous and unanimous that this committee will deliver price stability,” he said. He added that the Fed would “honor” the 2% inflation objective, but he described it as “the ‘two’ to the left of the decimal point,” hinting he wants room to debate the exact number over time.
Critics had worried Warsh might act as a political proxy and quickly cut rates to please President Donald Trump, who pushed for his appointment. Instead, Warsh refused to promise any cuts or give a schedule for bringing inflation back to target. When asked why the Fed did not hike this time, he pointed journalists back to the written statement rather than offering a clear yes‑or‑no outlook.
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