Representative Bryan Steil wants to stop lawmakers from cashing in on political prediction markets. His new bill would bar members of Congress and their families from profiting from betting on election or policy outcomes.
What Steil’s Bill Would Do
Steil, a Wisconsin Republican and chair of the House Administration Committee, introduced the Stop Lawmakers from Predicting Act this week. The bill would ban members of the House, their spouses, and their dependent children from using prediction markets to wager on “a specific government policy, government action, or political outcome.” According to his committee, the proposal aims to close “another avenue for lawmakers to profit from their official positions.”
Under the measure, any lawmaker who breaks the rules would face a financial hit. Violators would have to pay a fee of at least 2,000 dollars or 10% of the value of the trade, whichever is higher, plus give up any net profit from the bet. The bill also blocks members from using office funds or campaign money to cover those penalties.
Steil is attempting to add the prediction‑market prohibition to a broader House bill that would restrict lawmakers’ stock trades. The package is supported by House Speaker Mike Johnson and former President Donald Trump, which will increase its chances of a floor vote, CNBC reported. But the bill would still need to pass the Senate before it could become law.
Prediction Markets Under Growing Scrutiny
Prediction markets such as Kalshi and Polymarket allow people to gamble on questions concerning elections, legislation, and other real-world events.
Supporters think such markets can give helpful odds on future occurrences, but detractors caution that insider bets might erode public trust. Insider trading and conflicts of interest were among the issues that led the Senate to pass its own rule recently, which prohibits senators from betting on such platforms.
In his public comments, Steil has argued that “it is inappropriate for members of Congress to trade on the outcomes of elections or public policy.” He has also stressed that his proposal would still allow lawmakers and their families to use regular sports betting markets, since those events are not tied to their official work.
As more prediction‑market bills move in both chambers, crypto‑adjacent platforms are watching closely to see how far the final bans on political insiders will go.
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