Cboe Global Markets has officially launched Cboe Predicts, a prediction market platform built around equity index event contracts. The first products tied to the Mini S&P 500 Index (XSP), giving traders a way to bet on where the benchmark will close using fixed-payout contracts. Cboe says the suite makes “event-style trading” on major market moves more accessible through familiar brokerage channels.
At launch, Cboe listed two contracts, XSPBW and XSPBX, both linked to the Mini S&P 500’s daily settlement level. These products trade on Cboe’s options exchange and clear through the Options Clearing Corporation, which already handles most listed U.S. equity options. Initial access comes via brokers like Interactive Brokers, with firms such as Charles Schwab expected to offer them next.
Yes-or-No S&P 500 Trades with Fixed Payouts
Cboe Predicts uses a simple yes-or-no structure that mirrors popular crypto prediction markets while operating within the regulated options framework. Traders buy a “yes” contract if they think the Mini S&P 500 will settle at or above a set level, or a “no” contract if they expect it to settle below that level. Each trade pays either $100 or $0 at expiry, depending on whether the condition is met.
Because the contracts are based on XSP, which tracks the S&P 500 at one-tenth the size of SPX, capital needs stay smaller while exposure still follows the same index. Cboe says this design lets retail and smaller professional traders express precise short-term views without wrestling with complex options Greeks or rolling futures. Prices trade between 0 and 100, so traders can read the market’s implied probability directly from the quote.
With Cboe Predicts, a major U.S. exchange operator is moving into a space that has mostly belonged to niche platforms like Kalshi and Polymarket. Those venues have faced regulatory fights over whether event contracts are gambling or financial derivatives, while Cboe is launching under existing securities and options rules. The contracts are held in regular brokerage accounts, so traders do not need separate wallets or crypto tools.
Cboe describes the new suite as a way to “democratize event-based trading” on widely watched market benchmarks and, later, other asset classes. The company plans to extend Cboe Predicts beyond the Mini S&P 500, although it has not yet announced which underlyings will come next.
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