Citi Group has cut its 12‑month price targets for Bitcoin and Ether, saying weakening ETF demand and slow US policy progress are hurting the outlook for the two largest cryptocurrencies. With ETF flows now negative, the bank no longer expects spot crypto funds to bring new money into the market over the next year. As a result, it sees less support from one of the main drivers that lifted prices after US spot bitcoin ETFs launched.
In its recent report, Citi cuts its 12-month Bitcoin price projection to $82,000 from $112,000. It also lowers its Ether price prediction to $2,240 from $ 3,175. Bitcoin was last trading near $58,864, its weakest level since September 2024 and about half its all-time high of $126,223, set in October 2024.
The bank’s bear‑case scenario assumes recession‑style conditions and ongoing ETF outflows, putting Bitcoin at 53,000 dollars and Ether at 1,094 dollars in the next year. Citi had already slashed its Bitcoin and Ether estimates from 143,000 and 4,304 USD to 112,000 and 3,175 USD earlier this year, citing stalled US digital asset legislation. This new decision represents Citi’s second downgrade for 2026.
Crypto ETF Flows Turn Negative
The biggest change in Citi’s model is its view on ETF flows. The bank has cut its 12‑month net ETF inflow assumption to zero, down from 10 billion dollars. In the note, analysts wrote, “ETF flows, an important driver of prices, have turned negative recently,” and noted that Bitcoin ETF flows are down about $ 3.3 billion so far this year.
Earlier, Citi research linked ETF flows closely to Bitcoin price moves, estimating that every $1 billion withdrawn from Bitcoin ETFs can push prices down by about 3.4%. More recent work blamed a record streak of spot Bitcoin ETF outflows, around 4.4 billion dollars over 13 trading days, for much of Bitcoin’s latest slide. Consequently, Citi now argues that weaker ETF demand matters more than any single large‑holder sale.
Beyond ETF data, Citi points to stalled US crypto legislation as another driver of its downgrade. The bank previously highlighted the Digital Asset Market Clarity Act and similar bills as potential catalysts that could attract more advisors to spot crypto ETFs. However, it now says “slow progress on U.S. crypto legislation” has hurt sentiment and narrowed the window for a regulatory boost.
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