One of the top crypto news stories of today is that Donald Trump pardoned Changpeng Zhao, popularly known as CZ, who pleaded guilty and served four months in prison. With this pardon, crypto traders are now betting that Sam Bankman-Fried (SBF) will be next.
Polymarket Traders Raise Bets of Sam Bankman-Fried (SBF) Pardon
Donald Trump campaigned on being the best president for the crypto industry. To some extent, he has achieved that by launching crypto projects like TRUMP and World Liberty Finance, signing the GENIUS Act, and hiring Pul Atkins, a crypto-friendly lawyer, to head the SEC.
Donald Trump has also used his pardon power this year. He pardoned Ross Ulbricht, the creator of Silk Road, and the founders of BitMEX, including Arthur Hayes, Benjamin Delo, and Samuel Reed.
Most recently, he pardoned Changpeng Zhao, the founder of Binance, who is also a big backer of World Liberty Financial and its USD1 stablecoin.
Trump has also pardoned other white-collar individuals, such as Carlos Watson of Ozy Media and Nikola’s Trevor Milton.
A Polymarket poll with $40,904 in assets has the odds of Trump pardoning Sam Bankman-Fried (SBF) at 16%. While this is a low possibility, it is much higher than the intraday low of 4.2%.
Another poll with $6.5 million in assets gives SBF’s pardon odds of 11%. He ranks third after Roger Ver and Diddy, who was recently jailed for over four years.
The odds of an SBF pardon have jumped as his mother has appeared on friendly TV shows to make the case for a pardon. SBF also had a lengthy conversation with Tucker Carlson, who is a close friend of Donald Trump.
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The Case for an SBF Pardon
Trump may decide to pardon SBF for two main reasons. First, he was prosecuted by Joe Biden’s Justice Department, which also prosecuted him. He mentioned this fact in his CZ pardon post, saying:
“President Trump exercised his constitutional authority by issuing a pardon for Mr. Zhao, who was prosecuted by the Biden Administration in their war on cryptocurrency. In their desire to punish the cryptocurrency industry, the Biden Administration pursued Mr. Zhao despite no allegations of fraud or identifiable victims.”
Another possible reason why Trump may pardon SBF is that most victims were made whole to some point. Many received the funds they had before the collapse, including interest. However, the gains they would have made in the ensuing crypto rally were not included. Altogether, FTX Estate is paying back over $16.5 billion.
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