Gemini has secured long-awaited approval from the U.S. Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) to launch regulated prediction markets. The decision pulls a product class long associated with offshore platforms into the heart of the U.S. derivatives regime.
Gemini Brings Regulated Prediction Markets Onshore
Under the approval, Gemini can list event-based contracts that let traders take positions on outcomes such as economic data releases, Fed decisions, commodity benchmarks, or other objectively measurable events defined in rulebooks. Each contract settles to a fixed payoff depending on whether the specified outcome occurs, echoing binary options but wrapped in the disclosure and risk controls of a registered venue.
The CFTC’s green light hinges on strict guardrails. Contracts cannot stray into areas the agency views as gaming or unlawful event wagering, such as sports outcomes or purely political races, and each product must clear listing standards designed to avoid manipulation and ambiguous settlement. Gemini must maintain robust market surveillance, position limits, and transparent rulebooks so participants know exactly what triggers a win or a loss.
What CFTC Approval Means for Gemini and Traders
For Gemini, the authorization turns the exchange from a pure crypto spot platform into a player in the broader event-derivatives landscape, sitting alongside traditional futures products rather than entirely outside them.
The firm can now court institutions and sophisticated traders who have stayed away from offshore prediction sites due to legal risk, a lack of compliance infrastructure, or uncertainty over the enforceability of contracts.
For U.S. traders, the move creates a regulated alternative to gray-market prediction markets. Access will still come with hurdles: onboarding will run through full KYC, suitability checks, and margin controls, and some contracts may be restricted to eligible contract participants. But users gain clearer protections for custody, dispute resolution, and reporting, along with the comfort that contracts are subject to CFTC anti-fraud and anti-manipulation rules.
The approval also reopens a long-standing fault line in U.S. policy: when does trading on events become gambling by another name? By carving out an approved space for specific prediction contracts while continuing to block others, the CFTC effectively draws a sharper boundary between economic-risk hedging and speculative wagering. Gemini’s products will become a live test case for whether that boundary holds once real volume and creativity hit the market.
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