Prosecutors allege that a Google software engineer exploited confidential search data to earn over $1.2 million on Polymarket, a blockchain-based prediction market. They claim he placed significant bets on which individuals would become the most-searched in 2025, before Google made that information public.
How Prosecutors Say The Scheme Worked
According to a criminal complaint unsealed in New York, as reported by the WSJ, 36‑year‑old Google engineer Michele Spagnuolo used internal tools that showed early “Year in Search” trends for 2025. Investigators say Google marks this data as “Google Confidential” and allows only a limited number of employees to access it.
Prosecutors allege that between October and December 2025, Spagnuolo used this information to trade on Polymarket under the handle “AlphaRaccoon.” He allegedly wagered roughly $2.7 million across about 25 markets tied to Google’s 2025 “Year in Search” results, including contracts on the top five most-searched people.
Court documents say he made more than $1.2 million in profit when those results later went live, after betting heavily on outcomes that the market had priced with “near‑zero probability.”
One key trade involved musician d4vd, who ended up among the most searched people on Google in 2025. At the time Spagnuolo placed his bets, Polymarket users saw d4vd as a long shot compared with names like Kendrick Lamar, but the internal Google data allegedly showed a different picture.
Charges, Polymarket’s Role, and Google’s Response
US prosecutors have charged Spagnuolo with commodities fraud, wire fraud, and money laundering. The Commodity Futures Trading Commission has also filed a civil case accusing him of “fraud and manipulation” tied to event‑based Polymarket contracts. He has appeared in federal court and was released on a $2.25 million bond while the case proceeds.
Polymarket, which lets users bet on real‑world events using crypto, says its rules ban insider trading and that it “polices misconduct and refers illegal acts to federal authorities.” This is already the second high‑profile insider trading case linked to the platform in recent months, adding pressure on prediction markets that use on‑chain settlement.
Google says it is cooperating with law enforcement. A company spokesperson said the employee “accessed our marketing material using a tool available to all employees, but using such confidential information to place bets is a serious breach of our policies,” and confirmed that Google has put him on leave and “will take the appropriate action.”
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