Sui (SUI) is under pressure following a sharp sell-off triggered by a massive token unlock event. After rising to over $4.20 in late July, the SUI price has fallen to around $3.45 as of August 1, 2025, a drop of 23% from its recent highs.
This decline happened alongside the release of 76.27 million SUI tokens, valued at about $210.41 million.
SUI Coin Faces Unlock Pressure
The August 1 token unlock unleashed significant liquidity into the market. Historical trends suggest that SUI unlocks are often followed by short-term dips, as early investors and contributors take profit. That appears to be playing out again.
On-chain data shows SUI’s 24-hour trading volume jumped 38.8% to $2.26 billion, signaling intensified distribution. Meanwhile, DeFiLlama reports a 4.76% drop in SUI’s total value locked (TVL), now at $2.53 billion, suggesting waning DeFi participation in tandem with token selloffs.
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Yet, not all sentiment is bearish. A bullish development came from Mill City Ventures, which just announced a $500 million equity line to scale its publicly traded SUI treasury strategy. The move could inject fresh capital and narrative support into the ecosystem, depending on how it’s executed.
Failed Fibonacci Levels & Bearish Momentum
The SUI coin is experiencing a decline, having broken through several important support levels recently. The price has fallen below $3.55, which was the 50% Fibonacci retracement level. Now, $3.34 is acting as near-term support, corresponding to the 61.8% Fibonacci level. The next major downside target is $3.04, which is the 78.6% Fibonacci level.
Momentum indicators aren’t painting a rosy picture either. The MACD histogram has flipped negative (-0.0556), signaling increasing bearish divergence. RSI stands at 48.5, showing there’s still room to fall before hitting oversold territory.
Santiment’s MA indicators further confirm the loss of upward structure: SUI’s price has broken below the 50-day moving average ($3.90) and is now testing the 200-day MA around $3.52. If that level fails to hold, bears could push toward the $3.00–$3.10 region.
SUI Price Forecast in the Near Term
Popular crypto trader CW recently flagged $3.30 as SUI’s next key support level. If this zone holds, the SUI price could consolidate sideways before another attempt to reclaim the $3.55 resistance.
But if bears stay in control, the next line of defense sits near $3.04. Below that, psychological support at $2.80 and $2.50 could come into focus, especially if Bitcoin fails to provide broader market strength.
On the flip side, Ali spotted a symmetrical triangle breakout on the SUI price’s daily chart last week, with a projected upside target of $8. While the setup was technically valid, the unlock event has delayed that path. A confirmed reclaim of $4.00 and a break past the $4.60 sell wall will be needed to revive the bullish scenario.
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