The MSTR stock price collapsed in 2025, becoming the worst performer in the blue-chip Nasdaq 100 Index. Strategy dropped by 48% this year and by 72% from its all-time high of $542. So, will Michael Saylor’s company rebound in 2026?
Technicals Suggest That the MSTR Stock Price Will Crash for a While
The daily timeframe chart shows that the MSTR stock price has plunged this year, even as the tech-heavy Nasdaq 100 Index jumped to a record high.
Technicals suggest that the stock has more downside to go, at least in the first part of the year. It has just crashed below the important support level at $155.20, its lowest level on December 1, confirming the bearish outlook.
The stock also crashed below the crucial support level at $230.38, the neckline of the double-top pattern it formed at $456.
Additionally, it has remained below the 50-day and 200-day Exponential Moving Averages (EMA), which formed a death cross pattern on October 20th this year. A death cross is one of the most bearish patterns in technical analysis.
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The stock has remained below the Supertrend indicator, confirming the bearish outlook. Also, the Relative Strength Index (RSI) and the MACD indicators have continued to fall, confirming the bearish outlook.
On top of this, as we have covered in this Bitcoin price prediction, there are chances that the coin will continue falling for a while, which will drag Strategy much lower. Such a move may see it drop to the next key support level at $100, which is about 35% below the current level.
Will Strategy Stock Rebound in 2026?
There is a sense of pessimism about Strategy today as the crypto market crash intensifies and its short interest rises to the highest level in months.
There are also concerns about its ongoing shareholder dilution as it continues issuing new stock to buy more Bitcoin. This dilution will continue as the company has over $11 billion in authorized at-the-market (ATM) offerings.
Most importantly, investors are concerned about the falling market net-asset value (mNAV) figure, which has tumbled below 1 in the past few months.
However, history shows that Bitcoin always rebounds after it falls into a deep bear market. For example, Bitcoin price dropped by 32% from its highest level in March 2024 to its lowest point in August that year and then rebounded to a record high.
Most recently, Bitcoin dropped by over 30% from its highest point in January 2025 to its lowest point in April, and then rebounded to a new record high.
Therefore, a Bitcoin price rebound will likely draw investors to Strategy and other highly oversold digital asset treasury (DAT) companies like Metaplanet and MARA Holdings. As such, there is a likelihood that the stock will rebound to over $200 later this year if Bitcoin rebounds.
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