Two Democratic lawmakers have introduced a bill that would ban certain prediction market contracts tied to war and death. Representative Mike Levin of California and Senator Adam Schiff of California unveiled the Discourage Exploitation of Tragedy and Harm in Event Systems Act, or DEATH BETS Act, on March 9.
The bill would change the Commodity Exchange Act so that no exchange registered with the Commodity Futures Trading Commission can list contracts that involve terrorism, assassination, war, or an individual’s death. Today, the CFTC can block these contracts only if it decides they are against the public interest, but the new bill would remove that discretion and impose a clear ban.
Supporters say the bill closes “gaping holes” that let traders profit from events involving violence and loss of life. They argue that these markets do not provide a public benefit when they allow speculation on human suffering.
Why Lawmakers Target War and Death Contracts
Schiff and Levin cite recent examples on popular prediction platforms to show how far these markets have come. One cited case involves more than half a billion dollars wagered on the timing of U.S. military strikes on Iran.
Lawmakers also highlight contracts around possible nuclear detonations and the fate of political leaders. Polymarket, a major crypto-based platform, hosted markets on a global nuclear explosion, the removal of Venezuela’s Nicolás Maduro, and the fall of specific Ukrainian towns to Russian forces.
Critics say these markets can reward insiders who trade on classified or sensitive information. They warn that they may even encourage people to try to influence violent events so that their bets pay off.
How This Fits Into the Bigger Prediction Market Debate
The bill arrives as the CFTC prepares new rules for event contracts and prediction markets. CFTC Chair Michael Selig recently said he asked staff to draft guidance and an advance notice of proposed rulemaking on how to regulate these products.
Under current law, the agency already views many war and terrorism contracts as contrary to the public interest, especially on fully registered venues. However, platforms like Polymarket often operate offshore or in legal gray areas, which slows enforcement and makes it less clear.
Backers of the DEATH BETS Act want Congress to give the CFTC a simple rule: no registered exchange can list contracts that reference war, terrorism, assassination, or death, regardless of who leads the agency.
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