- Bitcoin price is on track for the first weekly gain since January.
- The rally could face challenges as crude oil prices jump.
- Iran hopes that prices will surge to $200 as it shuts the Strait of Hormuz.
Bitcoin price rose today, March 13, continuing a modest recovery that has been going on this week despite the ongoing Iran war. It rose to $72,000 after five consecutive days of gains. This article explores the potential BTC price target if crude oil jumps to $200, as Iran hopes.
Iran Hopes Crude Oil Will Jump to $200
One major risk facing the Bitcoin price is that the Iran war has a longer period to go. In a statement on Thursday, the new Supreme Leader warned that the country may open new fronts soon.
He, together with the government, hopes to continue punishing the United States by boosting crude oil prices, potentially to $200. Such a move would deter future attacks and also help punish Donald Trump and the Republicans in the coming midterm elections.
Brent crude oil was trading at $101 on Friday morning, meaning that it would need to double to hit its target.
READ MORE: Will the Crypto Market Crash or Rally as Iran War Takes a New Turn?
Higher oil prices would help to drive US and global inflation higher this year. Data released this week showed that the headline US inflation rose 2.4% in February, remaining above the Federal Reserve’s target for over four years.
Analysts believe that the ongoing surge in crude oil, gas, and fertilizer prices will push inflation above 3% in the coming months, confirming the view that the US is in stagflation. As a result, that would make it hard for the Federal Reserve to cut interest rates.
Polymarket data shows that traders anticipate the Fed to deliver one interest rate cut this year, potentially in December. Goldman Sachs analysts also reduced their interest rate expectations for the year, citing the elevated inflation.
Therefore, the combination of a prolonged war and higher crude oil prices would push Bitcoin’s price lower, as it is neither a safe haven nor a hedge against inflation. Also, such a move would push the US dollar much higher, limiting Bitcoin’s upside potential.
On the positive side, there are signs that Bitcoin is performing better than traditional assets amid the war. For example, it has experienced over $1.2 billion in inflows this month. Also, the stock market has tumbled, with the Dow Jones and S&P 500 indices falling by over 1.5% on Thursday.
Bitcoin Price Prediction: Technical Analysis
The weekly chart shows that Bitcoin has formed a highly bullish candlestick pattern this week, jumping to $71,500. Still, the coin has remained below the important resistance level at $74,500, its lowest level in April last year.
Bitcoin also remains below the 100-week Exponential Moving Average (EMA)and the Supertrend indicator. Also, it has formed a large bearish flag pattern on the daily chart.
Therefore, there is a risk that Bitcoin will resume its downward trend, potentially to $60,000, if crude oil jumps to the key $200 target that Iran hopes for.
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