- Solana trades at $81.97, with the 50-day SMA at $85.79, capping recovery.
- A three-cycle SMA failure pattern, active since Oct 2025, now points to a $52 downside target.
- SOL spot ETF assets shed $80M in three weeks as weekly outflows accelerate to $17.08M.
- Solana holds $71.9B in DEX TVL, over 6x Ethereum, yet institutional money keeps leaving.
Solana price dropped 3.44% over the past 24 hours and 32% from its YTD high, currently settling at $81.97, as sellers kept offers tight and buyers stepped back. The move extends a well-documented structural cycle that has resolved lower twice in the past six months.
Analyst Ali Charts has been tracking a three-phase cycle in Solana’s price structure that has repeated consistently since October 2025: SOL reclaims the 50-day SMA, loses it as support, then enters a sideways consolidation phase before the real sell-off begins. It ran in November 2025, reset in January 2026, and is now active again.
Solana (SOL) pushed above the 50-day SMA in mid-March, briefly touching $97, before rolling back below it. The price is now ranging between $79 and $81, with the 50-day SMA at $85.79, sitting overhead and untouched. Ali Charts maintains that this is not stabilization but the coiling phase before another leg down. The 24-hour range narrowed to $81.85–$84.93, with sellers maintaining compression from above.
The Solana price prediction from Ali Charts targets $52 if buyers cannot quickly reclaim $86. SOL is already 72.13% below its January 2025 all-time high of $294.33 and down 56% in the past 6 months. Until SOL crypto clears $86 with real volume behind it, the pattern has the edge.
Solana Leads DEX TVL, but ETF Capital Is Heading for the Exit
Despite the bearish Solana price outlook, SOL commands $71.9 billion in total value locked on decentralized exchanges, a figure that dwarfs Ethereum’s $10.7 billion and BNB Chain’s $7.76 billion by a wide margin, according to data from GeckoTerminal.
Solana holds over $55 billion more in DEX TVL than its closest competitor, a structural advantage that speaks to where actual on-chain activity is concentrated. Daily active users stand at 2.2 million, ranking SOL coin third among L1 blockchains behind BNB Chain’s 4.3 million and Tron’s 2.9 million, with a 12.8% share of the 17.4 million total L1 user base tracked.
On revenue, Solana generated $1.9 million over the past 30 days, second among L1s, level with Ethereum, though both trail Tron’s $213.3 million considerably.
None of that has moved institutional hands in the right direction. SOL spot ETF flows have gone negative for three consecutive weeks, recording minus $4.24 million on March 27, minus $5.24 million the week of April 2, and minus $17.08 million last week ending April 8.
Total ETF assets sit at $793.91 million, down from $874.61 million in mid-March when inflows were still positive. Weekly traded ETF volume fell to $89.11 million, the softest reading in recent history. The cumulative net inflow base of $963.23 million represents committed capital, but the marginal flow is clearly exiting.
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