U.S. prosecutors have charged a Special Forces soldier with using classified information about the raid to capture Venezuela’s Nicolás Maduro to win more than $400,000 on Polymarket. Authorities say Staff Sgt. Gannon Ken Van Dyke, 38, helped plan and carry out the January operation, then secretly bet on Maduro’s removal using a crypto-prediction-market account he opened weeks earlier.
Van Dyke signed nondisclosure agreements that prohibited him from disclosing or profiting from sensitive information about timing and goals, according to the indictment.
Instead, he allegedly used it to place a number of “yes” wagers on whether Maduro would be overthrown by January 31, 2026, and whether American military forces would enter Venezuela.
Polymarket addressed the charges directly on X, saying it had published enhanced market integrity rules last month to combat insider trading. The platform said it identified the account, referred the matter to the DOJ, and cooperated with the investigation.
“Insider trading has no place on Polymarket,” the company wrote. “Today’s arrest is proof the system works.”
How the $400K Polymarket Trade Worked
Investigators say Van Dyke funded a new Polymarket account in late December and focused almost entirely on markets tied to Venezuela and Maduro’s fate. He reportedly wagered about $32,000 that Maduro would be removed by the end of January, just hours before President Donald Trump spoke publicly. announced the leader’s capture.
When the operation succeeded, U.S. forces took Maduro into custody. Van Dyke’s positions then paid out across several related markets. Those trades generated profits of roughly $400,000 to $436,000.
Federal officials and market experts point to the timing of the bets. They also note that he focused narrowly on Maduro‑linked markets. They say this pattern matches classic insider dealing. This time, though, it played out on a crypto‑based prediction platform instead of traditional stocks or commodities.
Charges Under Commodity Law and Possible Penalties
Prosecutors in the Southern District of New York accused Van Dyke of three counts of violating the Commodity Exchange Act by trading event contracts with private information. He could spend up to 30 years in prison if found guilty on all counts, with a maximum sentence of 10 years for each offense.
The argument holds that Polymarket’s event contracts count as a type of commodity derivative. That makes them legally the same as other futures and swaps U.S. regulators already monitor.
This argument follows an earlier enforcement case in 2022. That year, the Commodity Futures Trading Commission brought enforcement action against Polymarket. It forced the platform to pay a fine and block U.S. users from accessing unregistered markets.
This latest arrest adds fuel to a growing debate over whether prediction markets make it too easy to cash in on secret government plans.
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