- Bitcoin price has stalled at the important resistance level at $78,000.
- The Crypto Fear and Greed Index has fallen below the greed zone.
- The Average Directional Index (ADX) has dropped to 26 on the three-day chart.
Bitcoin price was trading at $78,000 on Monday, within the narrow range it has remained in over the past few days. While the spot Bitcoin ETF Inflows are surging, the Crypto Fear and Greed Index has moved from the greed zone to the neutral point. Also, the Average Directional Index (ADX) has dropped, a sign that the bullish momentum is fading.
Spot Bitcoin ETF Inflows Rise, But Crypto Fear and Greed Index Drops
The Bitcoin price rally could stall despite ongoing ETF inflows. Data shows that spot Bitcoin ETFs have added over $2.4 billion this month, bringing the cumulative total to $55.9 billion.
This is the best month in the ETF market since October last year, when they added $3.5 billion. Similarly, the future open interest has continued rising this month, reaching a high of $63 billion. Whale investors have also continued buying these coins this month.
However, there are potential risks that could negatively impact Bitcoin. First, the Crypto Fear and Greed Index has moved from the greed zone to the neutral stage. In most cases, a falling index signals further crypto weakness.
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Second, Iranians have demonstrated that they are no longer interested in having talks with the United States. Last week, the country refused to attend talks, pushing the US team led by JD Vance to cancel the trip. The same happened this weekend, pushing Trump to cancel the trip again.
Therefore, there is a risk that crude oil prices will continue to rise, with traders on Polymarket predicting that Brent and West Texas Intermediate (WTI) will jump to $120 in the near term. Higher crude oil prices mean US inflation will continue to rise, making it hard for the Fed to cut interest rates.
Technical Analysis Points to a BTC Price Retreat
The other main risk facing the Bitcoin price is its technicals. On the positive side, the coin has formed an ascending triangle, suggesting further gains in the near term. It has also moved above the 50-day Exponential Moving Average (EMA) and the Supertrend indicator.
However, the risk is that the coin has formed a bearish pennant pattern on the three-day chart as the Average Directional Index (ADX) has moved from 44 to 28 today. A falling ADX indicates the ongoing bullish trend is losing momentum.
Therefore, there is a likelihood that the Bitcoin price will reverse in the coming days, potentially to the psychological level of $70,000.
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