- Bitcoin price has found substantial resistance at the upper side of the ascending channel.
- Crude oil price continued soaring after the US threatened a military strike on Iran.
- There is a likelihood that the Federal Reserve will hold rates higher for longer as inflation rises.
Bitcoin price held steady on Thursday despite elevated market risk amid a surge in crude oil prices. BTC was trading at $76,100, slightly below this month’s high of $79,000. Still, this consolidation may trigger a near-term crash.
Bitcoin Price at Risk as ETF Outflows Continue
Data compiled by SoSoValue shows that American investors have begun scaling back their Bitcoin holdings this week amid soaring geopolitical risks.
Spot Bitcoin ETFs shed over $137 million on Wednesday, much higher than the $89 million they shed on Tuesday. In total, these funds have shed over $490 million this week, a sharp reversal from the $823 million they added last week.
BlackRock’s IBIT shed over $54 million on Wednesday, while Fidelity’s FBTC and Grayscale’s GBTC shed $36 million and $21 million, respectively.
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Spot Bitcoin ETFs have shed assets amid ongoing profit-taking by investors after the coin soared and entered a bull market from its lowest level this year.
It is also happening as risks rose, leading to higher crude oil prices, with Brent and the West Texas Intermediate (WTI) remaining above $100.
According to Axios, the US military is considering three options to break the ongoing gridlock. The options include a limited strike on key infrastructure, an operation to get Iran’s enriched uranium, and one to reopen the Strait of Hormuz.
All these operations will lead to higher crude oil prices, pushing inflation above today’s levels. Indeed, some analysts believe that headline consumer inflation will jump to over 5% later this year, a move that would lower the chances that the Federal Reserve will cut interest rates in the near term.
There are signs that the risk-on sentiment investors recently had is fading. For one, data shows that the Crypto Fear and Greed Index has dropped from the greed zone of 62 a few days ago to the neutral point at 40 today.
Bitcoin Price Prediction: Technical Analysis
The daily timeframe chart shows that Bitcoin has formed an ascending channel and recently retested the upper side. This upper side coincided with the 23.6% Fibonacci retracement level at $75,453.
The coin has faced substantial resistance at the 100-day Exponential Moving Average (EMA), a sign that bulls have remained hesitant to open trades above it.
The Bitcoin price has also formed a small double-top pattern, a common bearish reversal signal in technical analysis.
Therefore, the most likely Bitcoin price prediction is bearish, with the next key support level to watch being at $72,000, the lower side of the ascending channel. On the flip side, a move above the channel’s upper boundary will signal further gains, potentially to the 50% retracement at $93,000.
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