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Bitcoin’s Distribution Phase Could Signal Price Drop

Alice Leetham
Alice Leetham
Alice Leetham
Author:
Alice Leetham
Writer & Editor
Alice is a content writer and editor at Bankless Times. As a cryptocurrency and content specialist, she has reported on crypto news, produced user guides, and crafted content for exchanges. She has first-hand experience in trading and investing, and in her spare time, she writes the puzzle page for a regional magazine and rings church bells.
Updated: October 16th, 2025

Bitcoin’s capital flow indicates a distribution phase, shedding light on investor behavior, according to Joao Wedson, CEO of Alphractal, in a recent X formerly Twitter) Post.

Onchain Cap Flow Sentiment Index

After a dynamic Q4 that catapulted Bitcoin’s value by over 40% to $107,000, there are emerging signs of investors cashing in profits.

An analysis of the Onchain Cap Flow Sentiment Index shows Bitcoin is currently at a pivotal price zone, facing either a significant drop or a further surge.

Data from SOSOValue reveal that Bitcoin ETFs experienced net outflows of $242.3 million on January 2, suggesting that a minor Bitcoin distribution phase may be taking shape. 

Bitcoin On-Chain CapFlow Sentiment Index – Alphractal

Sharp Decline in BTC/USDT Trading Volume on Major CEXs

Recently, there has been a decrease in the trading volume of the BTC/USDT pair on both spot and futures markets of major CEXs, as reported by CryptoQuant.

This reduction in trading volume on centralized exchanges leaves Bitcoin less equipped to offset any selling pressure. 

BTC/USDT Trading Share among CEXs – CryptoQuant

Bitcoin Price Analysis

The Bitcoin daily price chart has shown that the crypto market leader has seen some price pullback from its Dec 18 high of $108,000. 

BTC chart by TradingView

While It has remained above its key support of $90,900, a right-angled ascending broadening wedge is forming on the 4hr-TF. This technical alignment might indicate a buying level around the $91,000 level. If this level is broken, the $67,000 support level might be the next stop. 

BTC chart by TradingView

READ MORE: SPX6900 Top 24-hour Crypto—Is $1.5B Market Cap Next?

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Alice Leetham
Writer & Editor
Alice is a content writer and editor at Bankless Times. As a cryptocurrency and content specialist, she has reported on crypto news, produced user guides, and crafted content for exchanges. She has first-hand experience in trading and investing, and in her spare time, she writes the puzzle page for a regional magazine and rings church bells.