XRP is entering an important phase as mounting macroeconomic pressures and technical resistance persist. This is pushing XRP toward a decisive retest of a long-held support zone. After briefly trading above $2.40 earlier this week, the price of XRP has retreated to $2.37 at the time of writing. This event is drawing market attention to the $2.25–$2.26 level. This zone could determine the token’s short-term fate.
The move follows a swift rejection off the 1:1 extension of the C wave, a textbook target in Elliott Wave Theory. This rejection coincided with the escalation of global market tensions. Recently, President Trump proposed a 50% tariff on the European Union. This resulted in a market-wide recoil, affecting XRP as well. Bitcoin was also affected, with the price declining to $108k briefly.
XRP Could Experience a Decline
While XRP hasn’t recorded a new local low, momentum indicators and historical price behavior suggest that such a move could be imminent. The $2.25–$2.26 range has acted as a foundational structure over the past six months. It also coincides with the macro .382 Fibonacci retracement. This is an area often regarded as a make-or-break zone for trend continuation.
“If this level holds, we could see a reversal toward $2.70 or higher,” said one technical analyst monitoring the situation. However, if it breaks, the next meaningful support doesn’t come in until $1.90 and $1.55. If this happens, it will lead to further corrections for XRP.
The pressure is supported by current sentiment indicators. The Fear & Greed Index is reading 78, indicating Extreme Greed, even as the short-term sentiment remains technically neutral. XRP’s Relative Strength Index is at 57.29, placing it in a non-committal middle ground. It is neither oversold nor overbought.
Traders Expect Increasing Volatility
Price models are forecasting a near-term dip, with analysts predicting a -9.14% slide that could bring XRP to $2.15 over the next month. This aligns with short-term bearish sentiment. Unless XRP holds the $2.25 threshold, it may undergo a multi-week retracement. This outlook is supported by XRP’s recent volatility rate of 5.10% and the 50-day SMA at $2.23. The 50-day SMA is below the support level in question. This indicates a possible convergence that could trigger automated selloffs if breached.
Despite the bearish undertones, some analysts view this inflection point as a strategic entry. According to forecast data, XRP’s 200-day moving average is expected to climb to $2.07 next month, while its 50-day SMA is projected to rise slightly to $2.29. Hence, the longer-term trend could still be intact, should the current support hold.
For now, XRP traders are preparing for volatility as it approaches one of its most critical levels in recent months. All eyes are on the $2.25-$2.26 zone. A successful defense could reestablish bullish momentum. A breakdown, however, would likely usher in a fresh wave of bearish pressure. It could send XRP going back toward the $1.90 zone or even lower.
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