Polkadot price (DOT) slid 2.65% in the last 24 hours to $3.90, erasing much of last week’s gains after a $9.41 million token unlock hit the market on August 11.
The release, accounting for 0.15% of the circulating supply, was part of a $653 million wave of crypto unlocks across multiple projects. Although smaller than ZK or Solana unlocks, Polkadot’s came during thin liquidity and a risk-off phase, creating the perfect storm for short-term selling pressure.
The decline followed an 8.36% weekly rally that brought DOT face-to-face with the $4.15 resistance zone, a level capping upside since early July.
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Traders appear to have taken profits at this pivot, with DOT underperforming the wider market as Bitcoin dominance stabilized around 59% and the Altcoin Season Index dropped 5.56%, signaling a rotation into BTC amid macro uncertainty.
On-Chain Data Bearish Despite Bullish Narratives
The Polkadot ecosystem has been sharing adoption stories, including FIFA Rivals, a Web3 game developed by Mythical Games, which has achieved over 1 million downloads in under two months.
Governance is also active, with a new “OpenGov Adjustments – 2025” proposal aiming to reduce treasury spending noise and improve accountability. These moves could enhance long-term investor confidence.
However, the on-chain reality is less euphoric. Data show daily active addresses stagnating at just 3.7K, placing Polkadot 20th among other Layer 1 chains.
Fees over the past day totaled $492, with $394 in revenue. User growth is also flat, and market share in active addresses sits at just 0.1%.
Polkadot Price Shows Fading Momentum
Polkadot price’s rejection at $4.15 today came at a convergence of technical barriers, including the 30-day SMA ($4.01), the 38.2% Fibonacci retracement ($4.20), and the upper Bollinger Band ($4.30).
The RSI rests in neutral territory around 46, while the MACD histogram’s recent positive value (+0.0262) is narrowing, hinting at weakening bullish energy.
Weekly technical signals on TradingView skew bearish: 15 sell, 9 neutral, and just 2 buy readings. Most moving averages across daily and weekly timeframes remain tilted lower, reinforcing near-term resistance pressure.
Immediate support lies at $3.70, backed by the 50-day SMA ($3.79) and a key oblique trendline from June lows. Breaching $3.70 could trigger a slide toward $3.50, a major psychological level.
Volume data compounds the caution. DOT’s 24-hour trading volume dipped 1.77% to $307M, lowering its volume-to-market-cap ratio to 4.95%. With fewer buyers in the order books, even modest sell pressure from the unlock tranche could accelerate declines unless a large portion is staked.
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