Cardano (ADA) is struggling as it approaches mid-October, trading at about $0.68. This price is down over 23% this month, as large holders quietly sell their tokens. The sell pressure has capped attempts at recovery, with data showing 350 million ADA sold by whales in the past week alone, a sharp rise from 40 million earlier this month.
For now, the sentiment around ADA looks conflicted. On one hand, analyst Ali Charts points to a potential ascending triangle breakout above $0.90 that could send the token toward $1.88. On the other hand, on-chain trends paint a bleaker short-term picture of fading liquidity and DeFi cooling.
Profit-Taking Hits Cardano Momentum
According to Santiment data shared by Ali Charts, large wallets holding between 100M–1B ADA have aggressively trimmed their positions since early October.
That’s roughly $245 million in capital rotated out of ADA in just a week, suggesting a strategic move to lock in profits or rotate toward higher-yield altcoins.
At the same time, Cardano’s DeFi ecosystem is losing momentum. Data from DeFiLlama shows total value locked (TVL) has slipped to $310 million, down 5.2% in 24 hours, marking one of the weakest weeks since Q1. DEX and perpetual volume have also cooled, implying less speculative participation on-chain.
That combination, declining whale exposure and lower DeFi engagement, has weighed on sentiment. ADA’s 7-day loss of 17% shows traders are hesitating to “buy the dip,” even as some analysts frame the current consolidation as a potential accumulation zone.
Key Levels to Watch as ADA Price Consolidates
Cardano price is still coiling within a large symmetrical triangle that’s been forming since early 2024. The pattern’s upper boundary sits near $0.90, aligning with both the 0.786 Fibonacci level and prior rejection zones from March and May.
If bulls manage a decisive break and close above $0.90, analysts project an upside target near $1.30–$1.88, mirroring measured move projections from the pattern’s height. But that’s a big “if.”
The downside risk looks more immediate. Failure to defend the $0.62–$0.64 range, a key retracement zone, could drag ADA back toward the $0.55 support, where buyers last stepped in July. Momentum indicators have weakened, and whale outflows don’t support a strong recovery just yet.
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