Gemini is preparing to enter the prediction markets sector with the launch of regulated prediction market contracts. Reported by Bloomberg on November 4, the exchange’s pivot comes amid surging interest in financial products allowing users to trade on real-world outcomes, following record volumes at competitors like Kalshi and Polymarket.
How Gemini Plans to Roll Out Prediction Market Contracts
Gemini filed an application with the U.S. Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) in May to establish a derivatives exchange specializing in prediction contracts. The proposed event contracts will enable users to bet on the outcomes of future financial, economic, political, and sporting events.
Gemini’s IPO filing earlier this year indicated the company’s intention to expand beyond spot crypto trading by launching such contracts. The firm raised $433 million in its public debut, valuing it at $4.4 billion, though shares have declined 55% from the opening price.
Executives plan to differentiate Gemini’s offering by building proprietary infrastructure, contrasting with competitors who have partnered with existing licensed platforms.
This approach will likely delay the launch due to the CFTC’s lengthy approval process, which has been slowed by recent government shutdowns. Unlike Kalshi, which already operates as a registered exchange, Gemini will need full regulatory clearance before a public rollout.
Prediction Market’s Competitive Landscape
The prediction markets sector is experiencing rapid expansion. Kalshi’s weekly trading volumes surged above $1.2 billion in late October, while Polymarket also broke the billion-dollar mark despite operating offshore. Giant traditional exchanges have announced their own plans for event contract trading, with CME Group and Intercontinental Exchange investing heavily in the space.
Within the crypto industry, platforms like Coinbase and MetaMask are developing prediction market features for integration into wider ecosystems. DraftKings and Sam Altman’s World are joining the movement, betting on mainstream interest in regulated event-driven speculation.
Kalshi’s multibillion-dollar valuation and ICE’s $2 billion investment in Polymarket underscore broader institutional belief in the future of prediction contracts as a vehicle for diversification and engagement.
Despite regulatory ambiguity, Gemini’s entry highlights the sector’s transformation, as both crypto-native and traditional finance firms compete for market share in event-based trading. The timeline for the full launch remains contingent on government approval, but interest in prediction contracts shows no signs of slowing as platforms race to offer users new ways to trade on real-world questions.
READ MORE: Hyperliquid (HYPE) Jumps 9% on Whale Activity Amid Broader Crypto Sell-Off
