The Solana (SOL) market is currently navigating a period of significant technical and fundamental stress, with the asset hovering at a critical inflection point of $126. This price action follows a punishing 39% decline throughout Q4 2025, compounded by a staggering 97% crash in network activity.
As the broader crypto market contracts, the core tension for SOL price remains whether established support levels can withstand intensifying bearish signals from momentum indicators and futures liquidations.
SOL Network Activity Crashed 97% in Q4
The primary driver of the current Solana price weakness is a collapse in on-chain demand, with network activity plummeting from 30 million active traders in late 2024 to under 1 million in Q4 2025. This 97% contraction has decimated network revenue and severely impacted the utility of SOL coin.
Investor sentiment is further pressured by a broader market downturn, where the total crypto market cap fell 1.81% to $2.90T. High-level capital flight is evident in the $952 million pulled from crypto ETFs this week, suggesting that the institutional enthusiasm seen earlier in 2025 is being replaced by risk aversion.
Additionally, while the year saw milestones such as ETF approvals, the recent 50% drop in December has reignited warnings about DeFi-related risks in the SOL price ecosystem.
Solana Price Targets: Breaking Down the $118 Floor and $135 Resistance
The technical landscape for SOL’s price has turned decidedly bearish, as evidenced by a MACD of -4.73 and an RSI of 42.34. Market data shows that Solana coin recently suffered $5.8 million in long liquidations after failing to hold its 7-day SMA at $125.11.
This breakdown aligns with the analysis from @alicharts, who identified a persistent resistance trendline dating back to October on the 1-hour chart. According to Ali, a rejection at current levels could see SOL coin drop to $118, whereas a “close above $128 signals a breakout to $135.”
Despite the immediate bearishness, analyst BitBull offers a more optimistic long-term outlook, stating, “$SOL is looking good here.”
While BitBull acknowledges the technical weakness, noting, “I wouldn’t rule out one deviation below the support zone, but it’s due for a rally now,” he identifies a specific floor for accumulation.
“Any sweep of $90-$100 will be for buying,” BitBull notes, adding that “IMO, SOL will pump towards $160-$180 in Q1 2026 before any correction.” Consequently, the key watch remains the $120 support; a failure here validates a move toward $110, while BitBull’s upside targets of $160-$180 remain the primary objective for the coming quarter.
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