Bittensor TAO is up roughly 6% on Christmas Day, trading around $220 at the time of writing. The market has stabilized after recent declines but remains well below prior range highs. Currently, the TAO price is being shaped by two developments: the first halving, which cut emissions in half, and renewed AI-sector momentum following Nvidia’s $20 billion licensing deal with Groq.
Technical indicators point to stabilization rather than a confirmed reversal.
Bittensor Halving and Nvidia–Groq Deal Influence TAO Price
The decisive structural shift is the halving event confirmed by the OpenTensor Foundation. The network now issues about 3,600 TAO daily with a block reward of 0.5 TAO, down from roughly 7,200 TAO before the cut. The foundation states explicitly that the halving “reduces emission rate by 50%.”
Inflation now moves from approximately 25 percent to about 13 percent, tightening available supply while miner and validator rewards decline toward roughly 10 percent APY.
The second driver is sector-level. Nvidia’s December 24 licensing and asset transaction with Groq, valued at $20 billion, triggered a rally across a few AI-linked cryptocurrencies, including Bittensor, which moved intraday toward $224 today. The deal gives Nvidia access to Groq’s inference-centric architecture and engineering team, while GroqCloud remains independent.
Since Bittensor’s subnets are designed around decentralized inference and compute markets, traders treated the announcement as a validation of the category.
Range Breakdown Still Possible for Bittensor Price
TradingView’s daily indicator summary shows a sell bias, with the dashboard reading “Sell” and moving averages overwhelmingly negative. Thirteen moving averages signal a sell versus one buy, suggesting that TAO coin remains below key trend lines. Oscillators are neutral overall. RSI at 33.7 signals weak momentum rather than full oversold capitulation. The MACD print at –23.9 produces a sell reading, confirming that downward momentum has not fully resolved.
According to CyrilXBT, TAO has been “range-bound for months” with buyers stepping in around the lower zone and repeated failures to retake the $650–$750 upper supply region. His forward view is conditional. If the current support area holds, he expects a “quick relief bounce back into the mid-range where most people get chopped.”
If the Bittensor price “loses the box cleanly on weekly,” he warns of an “air pocket lower fast because the range breaks.” The statement makes the key trigger levels explicit. The range floor is the critical validation zone.
The mid-range becomes the first upside destination if support holds. The $650–$750 supply area remains the dominant resistance overhead. A weekly break below the lower band would invalidate the bullish case. Notably, the current price near $220 sits within that lower range, not near resistance.
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