Bitcoin price had a rough 2025, crashing by ~7% and underperforming other assets like gold, silver, and the stock market. This article highlights the top catalysts that may affect BTC prices in 2026.
Bitcoin Price to React to the Federal Reserve Actions
The BTC price underperformed the global market in 2025, even as the Federal Reserve delivered three interest rate cuts. In the last meeting, officials hinted that they would provide one cut in 2026.
However, Polymarket traders believe that the bank will deliver two or three cuts in the coming year. There are also chances for more cuts since Donald Trump will replace Jerome Powell with an official willing to slash rates to 1%.
A dovish Federal Reserve will likely be bullish for Bitcoin and other cryptocurrencies.
READ MORE: Why the Crypto Market Crash Happened Under Pro-Crypto Trump
BTC Price Eyes the CLARITY Act
The other main catalyst for the Bitcoin price will be the Digital Asset Market Structure Clarity Act (CLARITY) Act. This act seems to bring clarity to the crypto industry by defining which assets are commodities and which are securities.
The act will also separate the roles between the Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) and the Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC). Its passage may have a bullish catalyst for Bitcoin and other altcoins.
Bitcoin ETF Inflows
Meanwhile, Bitcoin will be impacted by the performance of the ETF market. Broadly, BTC ETFs had a good year, with net inflows of ~$22 billion. These funds have had over $56 billion in net inflows and now hold $113 billion.
More ETF inflows will be bullish for Bitcoin, as they will drive more institutional demand for the coin.
The other main catalyst for Bitcoin price will be the performance of the stock market, options expiries, and the broader market sentiment.
Bitcoin Price Prediction: More Pain Before Gain
The weekly chart suggests that the BTC price will have more pain before gains in 2026. It has formed a giant rising wedge pattern, composed of two ascending, converging trendlines. It has already moved below the lower side of this pattern.
The token has also formed a bearish pennant pattern, which is a risky sign. It has also moved below the 50-week Exponential Moving Average (EMA), while the MACD indicator has moved below the zero line. Therefore, the coin may drop further to $70,000 and then resume the uptrend in 2026 as investors buy the dip.
READ MORE: Kraken, BitGo, Consensys, Chainalysis, SpaceX, to Lead Crypto IPOs in 2026
