Kevin Warsh is surging and flipping Rick Rieder on Polymarket ahead of Donald Trump’s Federal Reserve Chairman announcement.
The odds of the president announcing Kevin Warsh jumped to 85%, while Rick Rieder’s probability fell to just 7%. This is a big reversal as Rieder was seen as the favorite early this week.
In a statement, Donald Trump noted that he would announce on Friday morning. Historically, Polymarket odds have been accurate in predicting the outcomes of major events. A good example of this is the 2025 Nobel Peace Prize announcement.
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Kevin Warsh is an economist with a history at the Federal Reserve, where he served as a governor from 2006 to 2011. He currently serves as a visiting fellow at the Hoover Institution.
Warsh will replace Jerome Powell, whom Donald Trump nominated during his first term. His tenure will be defined by Trump’s focus on low interest rates. On Thursday, he criticized Powell, calling him a moron for not cutting rates at the Wednesday meeting.
Still, chances are that Trump will get frustrated with Warsh because he will not have the final say on interest rates at the Fed. For example, Stephen Miran and Christopher J. Waller voted to cut interest rates at this week’s meeting, while the other Fed officials voted to leave them unchanged between 3.50% and 3.75%. Therefore, Warsh’s vote would not have been enough to cut rates.
Kevin Warsh has Criticized Crypto in the Past
Kevin Warsh is seen as a pro-crypto economist. However, his views on the industry are less supportive than Rick Rieder’s. For example, he criticized Bitcoin’s volatility in a 2018 Wall Street Journal opinion piece. He also blasted the industry, including stablecoins, in his other pieces.
On the positive side, a Federal Reserve Chair has limited influence over the crypto industry, with regulation handled by top regulators such as the Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) and the Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC).
A Fed Chair typically influences crypto prices through interest rate cuts. Historically, a dovish Federal Reserve has boosted the crypto market by making cash cheaper.
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