- Bitcoin price has formed a risky chart pattern on the daily timeframe chart.
- The US will publish the latest GDP report on Friday
- Donald Trump may attack Iran as soon as this week.
Bitcoin price remained in a tight range on Thursday as market participants awaited several major catalysts, including the potential US attack on Iran, the upcoming SCOTUS ruling on Donald Trump’s tariffs, and US GDP data. BTC was trading at $66,857, down sharply from the all-time high of $126,300. This article explores the top catalysts for the BTC price this week.
Bitcoin Price to React to Upcoming SCOTUS Ruling on Trump’s Tariffs
A likely catalyst for the Bitcoin price will be the potential Supreme Court decision on Donald Trump’s tariffs, which may come on Friday.
The court will determine whether Trump was right to apply his reciprocal tariffs on countries such as China, Mexico, Canada, and the European Union under the International Emergency Economic Powers Act.
Removing tariffs will be bullish for Bitcoin and other altcoins, as it may lead to lower inflation. Also, it will leave the US government worse off, as the tariffs are helping to reduce the significantly high budget deficit.
However, the impact will be short-lived, as Trump has other tools to achieve his tariff goal. He may use Section 232 of the Trade Expansion Act of 1962 and Section 301 of the Trade Act.
READ MORE: Crypto Crash is Continuing: Will Bitcoin and Altcoins Rebound?
Potential US Attack on Iran
The next major catalyst for Bitcoin’s price will be Iran’s attack on the United States. Media reports suggest that the military has told the president that it was ready for an attack. What is remaining is for the president to authorize the attack, which he expects will last a few days or weeks.
Iran, on the other hand, has warned the US administration that any attack will have substantial consequences. It promises to shut the Strait of Hormuz and attack US bases in the region. Such a move will lead to higher volatility and crude oil prices. Indeed, Brent and West Texas Intermediate (WTI) continued rising.
A new war in the Middle East will negatively impact Bitcoin because its role as a safe haven has been invalidated.
US GDP and PCE Data
The next key catalyst for Bitcoin’s price is the upcoming macro data from the United States. The key data to watch will be the first estimate of fourth-quarter GDP data. Economists expect the report to show that the economy expanded by 3% in the fourth quarter.
The US will also react to the upcoming personal consumption expenditure (PCE) data. Economists expect the headline PCE report to show a 2.8% increase in December.
This report comes a day after the Fed published minutes of the last monetary policy meeting. A key detail in those minutes is that some officials discussed potential rate hikes this year, as long as inflation remains above 2%. A rate hike would have a major negative impact on risky assets such as Bitcoin and other cryptocurrencies.
Bitcoin Price Prediction: Technical Analysis
Technicals will also affect Bitcoin’s price in the near term. As the chart above shows, the coin is forming a bearish pennant pattern, which consists of a vertical line and a symmetrical triangle. The two lines of the triangle are nearing their confluence.
Therefore, the most likely BTC price prediction is bearish, with the next key target being the year-to-date low of $60,000.
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