The S&P 500 Index and its ETFs, such as SPY, JEPI, and VOO, have consolidated over the past few months. It was trading at $6,910 on Monday, a few points below the year-to-date high of $7,035. This article explores some of the top catalysts for the index this week.
S&P 500 Index to React to a Potential US Strike on Iran
The most important catalyst for the S&P 500 Index and its ETFs, such as VOO, SPY, and JEPI, will be the potential US strike on Iran, which analysts believe will occur in the coming days or weeks.
Donald Trump is under intense pressure from Republicans like Lindsey Graham, Ted Cruz, and Tom Cotton to attack and possibly change the regime.
Iran has warned that it will respond to any attack by focusing on Israel, the Strait of Hormuz, and US military bases in the region. Analysts believe a new war in Iran will push crude oil prices higher, with some expecting them to hit over $100.
A new war in the Middle East would lead to a significant decline in the US stock market by boosting oil prices and inflation. Such a move will make it hard for the Fed to cut interest rates.
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Federal Reserve Speakers
The other major catalyst for the S&P 500 Index and its ETFs, such as SPY and VOO, is upcoming statements by top Federal Reserve officials. Christopher Waller, a governor who has supported interest rate cuts, will speak on Monday.
Austan Goolsbee, Raphael Bostic, Susan Collins, Lisa Cook, and Tom Barkin will talk on Tuesday, while Musalem will talk on Wednesday.
These statements will be released a week after the Federal Reserve publishes the minutes of the last monetary policy meeting. The minutes showed that some Fed officials were supportive of higher interest rate cuts for a while.
Donald Trump Tariffs
The other important catalyst for the S&P 500 Index will be Donald Trump’s tariffs. The index rose slightly on Friday after the Supreme Court ruled against Donald Trump’s tariffs.
In a statement on the same day, Trump announced a new 10% tariff, which he later added to the 15% tariff. The law he used means that these tariffs can remain in place for six months unless extended by Congress.
NVIDIA and Other Top Altcoins
The other major catalyst for the S&P 500 Index and VOO is NVIDIA’s upcoming earnings. NVIDIA, the world’s largest company, will release its results on Wednesday.
Analysts expect the upcoming results to show that the company generated over $65 billion in the last quarter, with earnings jumping by over 40%. Its annual revenue and EPS are expected to be $213 billion and $4.70, respectively.
More American companies will publish their results this week. Home Depot, Constellation Energy, Workday, American Tower, and First Solar will publish their results on Tuesday.
TJX, Salesforce, Lowe’s, Synopsys, Snowflake, and Zoom will release their numbers on Wednesday, while Intuit, Monster Beverages, Dell, Warner Bros, Vistra, and Autodesk will release their numbers on Thursday.
Blue Owl and Private Credit Woes
The other major catalyst for the S&P 500 Index and its ETFs will be the ongoing woes in the private credit industry.
These concerns escalated after Blue Owl announced that it was selling a loan portfolio worth over $1.4 billion and restricted redemptions.
As a result, Blue Owl stock tumbled to $11, down from the all-time high of $25. Other companies in the industry, like Apollo Global Management, Ares, Blackstone, and TPG, also dropped.
The woes in the private credit industry are notable, as it manages over $2 trillion in assets.
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