- Circle stock price has pulled back in the past few weeks.
- The company has some major catalysts, including high interest rates.
- It has moved to the second phase of the Elliot Wave pattern, pointing to a rebound.
Circle stock price was stuck at the important support level of $100 on Thursday as the momentum experienced after the last financial results waned. CRCL was trading at $95 on Thursday, down from last month’s high of $135. Still, the ongoing US-Iran war and the soaring inflation may boost its stock in the near term.
Circle Stock Has Key Catalysts
CRCL has strong fundamentals, which may drive further gains in the near term. One of the top catalysts is the ongoing US-Iran war, which has pushed crude oil and other commodities much higher. According to data from the London Stock Exchange (LSEG), Brent jumped to $126, its highest level in years.
Fertilizer prices have also continued rising as the supply from the Middle East wanes. This, in turn, will lead to higher food prices in the coming months. Other prices, including shipping and transport, have continued soaring during the war.
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Therefore, the US inflation rate is likely to keep rising, which will push interest rates higher in the long term. This, in turn, will boost its revenue as short-term government bond yields soar. Circle makes most of its money by investing its crypto holdings in short-term government bonds.
Second, the USDC stablecoin has gained momentum in the past few months, with its total assets rising to $80 billion. Most notably, the USDC volume soared to $30 trillion in the first quarter, up from $12 trillion and $6 trillion in the same period in Q1 ’25 and Q1’24, respectively. These amounts are much more than those of the USDT stablecoin.
Third, analysts believe the company’s revenue will continue to rise in the coming years as stablecoin adoption soars. The average estimate is that its annual revenue will come in at $3.13 billion this year, followed by $4.3 billion next year.
To be clear: Circle faces some major headwinds this year. For example, the company has an unhealthy relationship with Coinbase, which takes all the USDC interest on its platform.
Also, the company will likely have substantial costs as it scales other businesses such as Arc and the Circle Payment Network (CPN). These costs will likely affect its gross and net profit margins.
CRCL Stock Price Technical Analysis
The daily timeframe chart shows that the CRCL stock price has remained within a narrow range over the past few weeks. A closer look shows it has entered the second phase of the Elliot Wave pattern.
If this is accurate, it means it will then enter the third phase, which is usually the longest and most bullish. Therefore, the stock will likely rebound, potentially to the next key resistance at $136, its March 17 high. A move above that level will signal further gains, potentially to the psychological $200 level.
