Bitcoin started the week at a new all-time high, currently trading at a record price of just under $72,000 per BTC. The biggest crypto by market cap sealed its highest-ever weekly close. When it comes to breaking even higher, however, bulls still face stiff resistance.
Bitcoin is at the crossroads of relentless bids from spot Bitcoin ETFs and selling pressure at key psychological price levels, but this is nothing new. Cointelegraph raises the question of which of the two will have the upper hand this week.
Unprecedented scale of ETF buying
The effect of ETF buying was definitely unexpected. Even longtime bulls are reassessing their predictions of the Bitcoin price in the years to come. A Bitcoin price prediction of $1 million is starting to look conservative.
Other market analysts have warned that the rapid bull run can lead to a macro Bitcoin price top sooner than expected.
In the nearer-term, US macro data is to be released. It should form a background for the Federal Reserve’s upcoming interest rate decision.
With Bitcoin at a junction, miners are rushing to take profit before the Bitcoin halving in April.
Bitcoin price discovery preceded by record high
Last week, the Bitcoin price demonstrated classic volatility, reaching a weekly close that turned out to be a historic record. The all-time Bitcoin price high of $69,000 didn’t last, and Bitcoin lost around $4,000 the same day. It rebounded thereafter, echoing previous taps of the $69,000 level. The rebound ultimately took Bitcoin to today’s new all-time high, observed during Asian trading hours.
CryptoQuant contributor Maartunn revealed the blockchain movement of Bitcoin that had been dormant for up to ten years. According to the Spent Output Age Bands metric, which he referenced, there was a movement of around 2,900 Bitcoins, which had lain dormant for 7-10 years. This metric groups crypto depending on how long it was stationary on the blockchain.
Few expectations of a Fed rate cut
Consumer Price Index (CPI) data for February will be published tomorrow, on March 12. It will headline another typical week where US macroeconomic data is concerned. The CPI leads to volatile short-term trading across risk assets. There has been an inconsistent narrative around Federal Reserve policy and inflation. Rate cuts are good for markets and the Bitcoin price, but Fed Chair Jerome Powell and other officials are trying to cool stakeholders’ expectations.
A key reference point will emerge from the nature of data, such as CPI figures. The Fed will convene in about a week. Few expect a decision to cut the benchmark rate, according to the latest estimates from CME Group’s FedWatch Tool. The odds are only 3% at publication time.
Expanding ETF buy pressure
Bitcoin market watchers are waiting for spot Bitcoin ETFs to resume buying. The SEC’s approval of 11 ETFs led to some of the most successful ETF launches in history. The funds ushered in a Bitcoin price transformation that many expect to continue.
However, demand for ETF products may wane, which will cause the Bitcoin price to drop. Institutions are becoming even more optimistic. ARK Invest CEO Cathie Wood commented that her company had brought its $1-million Bitcoin price target for 2023 forward. She said that Bitcoin price action was happening even though major banks had not approved Bitcoin, so “we haven’t even begun.”
The effect of halving on Bitcoin’s price
The Bitcoin price’s new all-time high before the Bitcoin halving is a unique and surprising event in its history. Miners want a piece of the Bitcoin price action and are increasingly selling around highs as their rewards will drop in half after the halving.
This has been happening all year so far. Miner wallet outflows started when the Bitcoin ETFs launched on January 11, according to CryptoQuant data.
Meanwhile, the daily revenue was just under $76 million on March 7, the second-highest ever, according to an X post by CryptoQuant contributor Julio Moreno.
Hodlers will hodl
Bitcoin hodlers are not selling despite the discovery of the inbound Bitcoin price, and they are clearly expecting the Bitcoin price to keep increasing. Glassnode data shows that long-term holders have yet to match the volumes of transfers witnessed back in 2021 when the Bitcoin price first reached $69,000.
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