- Kalshi traders are boosting their odds that Donald Trump will be removed using the 25th Amendment.
- A Polymarket poll predicts that Democrats will win the Senate.
- The crypto rally may also stall as concerns about whether the ceasefire will hold rise.
A crypto rally is going on today as market participants cheered the new ceasefire in the Middle East. Bitcoin price has moved above $72,000, while tokens like Zcash, Monad, and LayerZero jumped by over 15%.
Still, this crypto market rally may be at risk as the odds of Donald Trump being removed under the 25th Amendment and of Democrats flipping the Senate rise.
Odds of Trump Being Removed by 25th Amendment are Rising
The crypto regulatory space may soon come under pressure as the odds of President Donald Trump being removed from office through the 25th Amendment rise.
A Kalshi poll shows that the odds have soared to 32% from 15% in January this year. These odds have risen after the recent Truth Social posts by Trump, including one where he warned that the US would end the Iranian civilization.
That post led to calls for invoking the 25th Amendment by some of the loudest conservative voices, including Alex Jones, Candace Owens, and Marjorie Taylor Greene.
The 25th Amendment allows the president to be removed from office by the Cabinet. It starts with the formal declaration by the Vice President and a majority of the cabinet that the president is unable to carry out his mandate.
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After a series of steps, the decision moves to the Congress, where two-thirds of the members of the House of Representatives are needed to remove the president.
The odds of the process happening this year are slim, as Trump remains popular among elected officials. However, this may change after the midterm elections, especially if Democrats win in a landslide.
Meanwhile, a Polymarket poll shows that most traders now believe that Democrats will win the Senate. These odds have jumped from 26% in December to 53% today. Some of the most vulnerable Republican senators are Susan Collins of Maine, John Cornyn of Texas, Bill Cassidy of Louisiana, and Jon Husted of Ohio.
Democrats are expected to win the House of Representatives by a large margin. If the 25th Amendment fails, Trump may be removed through impeachment.
His removal would likely be bearish for the crypto market. For one, it means that critical legislation like the CLARITY Act will not be passed. It also means more congressional investigations into the crypto industry.
Crypto Rally is at Risk After the Ceasefire
Meanwhile, there is a risk that the US-Iran ceasefire will not last. For example, the terms of the ceasefire called for Israel to stop its attacks against Hezbollah, which it may resist.
Iran has warned that it may start bombing Israel again, a move that would push the US to intervene, restarting the war.
Trump will also come under pressure from his allies in Congress, like Lindsey Graham and Tom Cotton, to continue fighting. He will also be pressured by media personalities like Mark Levin and Sean Hannity, as well as by countries like Saudi Arabia and the United Arab Emirates.
Most importantly, the gap between the US and Iran is too wide, suggesting the two sides may struggle to reach an agreement before the two-week deadline.
Technical Analysis Suggests That Bitcoin Price May Crash Soon
Technicals also suggest that Bitcoin’s price may drop sharply in the near term, ending the crypto market rally. As the chart above shows, Bitcoin remains below all moving averages and has formed a bearish pennant pattern.
This pattern often leads to a strong bearish breakdown. Also, despite the good news, Bitcoin has failed to move above the important $76,000 resistance level, suggesting investors remain cautious.
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