Tesla stock price has dropped into a bear market this year, moving from a high of $500 in December last year to the current $365. Still, TSLA stock has formed a harami candlestick and a falling wedge, suggesting a strong rebound as key catalysts emerge.
Tesla Stock Price Chart Analysis Points to a Strong Rebound
The three-day chart shows that TSLA stock has slumped over the past few months, falling from a record high of $500 in December to $365. A closer look shows that the stock has formed a harami candlestick pattern.
A harami candle is made up of two candles. It forms during a downward trend when a big bearish candle is followed by a smaller bullish one. Its name comes from the Japanese word for pregnant.
The stock has also formed a falling wedge pattern, a pattern composed of two descending, converging trendlines. A bullish breakout normally happens when the two lines are about to converge, which is happening now.
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This convergence is occurring near the 38.2% Fibonacci Retracement level. Also, the Relative Strength Index (RSI) is turning around and pointing upwards.
Therefore, the most likely Tesla stock price forecast is bullish, with the next important target being the 23.6% Fibonacci Retracement level at $415. A move above that level will point to more gains, potentially to the all-time high of $500.
Tesla Has Some Major Bullish Catalysts
The bullish case for TSLA stock is supported by several major catalysts. First, the Bitcoin price has held relatively steady and is showing signs of bottoming. It was trading at $72,000 on Wednesday, and Bernstein expects it to surge to $150,000 soon. Bitcoin’s price action is important for Tesla because it holds 11,500 coins worth over $815 million.
Second, Tesla stock may benefit from the ongoing sales growth in China and Europe. Data released this week showed that its sales grew modestly for the first time in 13 months. They grew by 11.8% in February, a sign the company is gaining traction.
Similarly, its Chinese sales jumped by 42% in February to 38,206. This growth was driven by its Model Y vehicles. Tesla’s sales dropped by 5% in 2025 to 625,000.
Third, the company may benefit in the United States and Europe as gas prices remain elevated amid the ongoing Iran war. Gasoline prices jumped to $3.983, up sharply from last month’s $2.9. Diesel prices have jumped to over $5.3. As a result, more people may switch to Tesla’s EVs, which are typically cheaper to maintain.
Additionally, the TSLA stock price may do well after the company launches its new chip manufacturing plant in Texas. The company, together with SpaceX, aims to become a major player in the chip industry through the Terafab project. Tesla is also working to launch its robotaxi and its Optimus project.
Still, the biggest challenge for the Tesla stock price is that the company is one of the most overvalued on Wall Street. It has a forward PE ratio of nearly 200, well above that of other companies, including the faster-growing names like Nvidia and Microsoft.
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